Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Bear Market 2007-Present

Chart from

The great bear market of 2007 to present saw the market drop 57% from 1565
to 666. We've rallied almost 40% off the lows but the we're far from a new high. The S&P 500 closed around 930 and would need to rally another 70% to make a new high.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Bear Market 1990 & Gulf War

Chart from

This bear market coincided with the presidency of George Bush Sr. and the Gulf War. This bear market was very short and the market dropped 19.9% from July 1990 to October 1990. The S&P 500 traded down from 368.95 to 295.54 and then recovered to make new highs.

Bear Market Crash 1987

Chart from

On "BLACK MONDAY" stock market went down over 22.6% on October 19th 1987. The S&P 500hit a high of 336.77 on August 25th 1987 and fell 33.2% to a low of 223.92 in December 1987. This recovery began a 12 year bull market which reached a nominal high in October 2007 of 1578.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Bear Market 1981-1982

Chart from

On November 28, 1980 the S&P 500 hit a high of 140.52 and then proceeded to go down 27.1% to 102.42 in August 1982. During this time the S&P 500 formed a base for 5 months and then went up 64.6% off the lows to 168.62 in August 1983. It's note worthy that Ronald Reagan was president during this time where tax rates were lowered and credit(Debt) was expanded greatly. Many people think Ronald Reagan was a great president but probably at the expense of future generations? I can't argue that Reagan wasn't because I enjoyed prosperity during this time just as every other American did.

Great Bear Market 1973-1974

Chart from

The bear market of 1973-1974 is considered one of the great bear markets like 1929-1932, 1937-1938, 1939-1942, 2000-2002, and 2007-present. On January 11th 1973 the S&P 500 hit a high of 120.24 and then proceeded to drop 48.2% to a low of 62.28 in October of 1974. The bear market lasted 20.7 months and rallied 29% to a high of 82.76 over the next 12 months. I think Richard Nixon getting the country off the gold reserve standard in 1971 and the expansion of the money supply over the next 38 years is the main reason the country faces the economic problems today. The S&P 500 increased 25 times from the low of 62.28 to 1578 in October of 2007. If that isn't a huge bubble I don't know what is. I think the S&P 500 will go below 400 before the end of 2010. Only time will tell.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Bear Market 1968-1970

Chart from

This bear market started in November 1968 and fell 36.8%. Over 17 months the market fell to a low of 69.29 in June of 1970. The president of the United States during this time was Richard Nixon. Over the next 32 months the market rallied to around 100for the S&P 500 index.

Bear Market 1966-1967

Chart from

Above is the depiction of the bear market from February 1966 to December 1966. The S&P 500 topped out at 96.04 and dropped to 73.20 which is roughly a 24% decline. The market then rallied 33% for the next 12 months to new highs of 97.35. The main point here is to SELL high and Buy Low using a moving average crossover and your returns would have been much better than just BUY and HOLD/HOPE.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Bear Market 1961-1962

Chart from

The S&P 500 hit a high of 72.64 in December of 1961 before dropping for 7 months. The low was hit in July of 1962 at 52.32. This was a 28% decline off the highs in total. The market based out for 5 months before rallying for a 33% gain over the next 12 months. John Fitzgerald Kennedy was the president during this time period.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Bear Market 1956-1957

Chart from

The above chart depicts a bear market during the Dwight Eisenhower presidency. The S&P 500 stock index fell from 49.68 in July 1956 to 38.98 at he end of 1957. In 1956 through 1957 for 7 months the market dropped 15% and then rallied up 26% for 3 months before plummeting 18% for 5 months. If you look at this bear market the basing phase took a couple months before the market rallied up 86% off the lows. A long basing period is good because it allows the market to work off the excesses from the previous expansion.

Monday, May 4, 2009

A Review of Past Bull and Bear Markets Since 1950

The chart above shows the trendline that so many financial planners use to highlight the performance of the stock market. The chart is used to sell the buy and hold investment philosophy. Financial planners don't tell you about the stocks that go bust and the new healthy stocks that come into the index. When AIG tanked the stock was replaced by Kraft Foods. What about Enron, WorldCom, and Wachovia?

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Goldman Sachs Linkage?

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was CEO of Goldman Sachs. Edward Liddy CEO of AIG was from Goldman Sachs. Former Securities and Exchange Chief Christopher Cox was from Goldman Sachs. Jim Cramer of CNBC who constantly gives misinformation to investors was from Goldman Sachs. The list goes on and on. I think there's a link that needs to be broken especially when taxpayers are bailing these companies out.

PPIP(Private Public Investment Program)will it work?

The 5th video looks feasible.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Swine Flu?

My new belief is this SWINEFLU is 100% BS!

The swine flu killed 20 million people worldwide between 1918-1920. Over 500,000 people were killed in the United States during 1918-1920. The reality is people die every year in the United States due to flu related ailments.

In 1976 the government ran the propaganda video above and many people protected themselves from the swine flu. The government abandoned the program because many people who took the shot suffered bad side effects. I attached a 60 minutes interview transcript from 1979 which will add some insight.

The number of influenza-associated (i.e., flu-related) deaths varies from year to year because flu seasons often fluctuate in length and severity. CDC estimated that about 36,000 people died of flu-related causes each year, on average, during the 1990s in the United States. This figure includes people dying from complications of flu. This estimate came from a 2003 study published in the Journal of the American Medication Association (JAMA), which looked at the 1990-91 through the 1998-99 flu seasons. Statistical modeling was used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate was listed as a respiratory or circulatory disease. During these years, the number of estimated deaths ranged from 17,000 to 52,000.

In 2009, CDC published additional estimates of flu-related deaths comparing different methods, including the methods used in the 2003 JAMA study. The seasons studied included the 1993-94 through the 2002-03 flu seasons. Results from this study showed that during this time period, 36,171 flu-related deaths occurred per year, on average.