Saturday, September 18, 2010

Up Next...Bear and Bull Option Spreads

Another City Same Reason, Fort Worth, Texas Insolvent

The Star-Telegram reports Fort Worth pension bubble will blow up in our faces.

To understand why Fort Worth's pension system is such a financial disaster, look at one month's list of recent retirements.

In January, a 53-year-old policeman retired with an annual benefit of $90,312 for life, plus $256,000 in a lump sum payment. Another policeman, 57, got almost $74,000 annually, plus $313,000 in a lump sum. A 54-year-old firefighter got an annual pension of $90,130, plus $178,000 in cash.

With an average age of 50 for the police and 54 for the firemen in this group, they're likely to spend more years in retirement than they worked. An analysis for the City Council, presented in July, projected that the retiring policemen would collect $3.1 million in pension pay.

You don't have to be an actuary to know that this pension plan will end badly. The technical phrase is "trending toward insolvency."

Except that the city is on the hook for all the promised benefits. Taxpayers will have to pony up hefty contributions for years, even generations, and the city may have to cut services to afford it. The pension for city employees is currently projected to pay out $432 million more than it brings in over the next 30 years.

And that's the optimistic scenario. If investment returns average 7 percent, rather than the dreamy 8.5 percent in the assumptions, the unfunded liability could approach $1 billion.

The pension will require $60 million in city funds next year, and it's already a drag on a strapped city budget that has to close swimming pools and libraries and impose furloughs. Every year, the pension hole grows, because the benefits keep piling up.

"This is the elephant in the room," Mayor Mike Moncrief told the council in late July. "Not only for this budget, but for all the budgets to come."

The city manager appointed an ad hoc committee to look at the pension problem. It had a few businessmen, but most were employees -- a mix of police, fire and general workers. Imagine they had a little conflict?

They recommended that the city contribute an additional 6 percent of employee pay into the plan

Just like the City of Vallejo , California, police and fire were costing the taxpayers too much. City went bankrupt and the issues were resolved in court. Just like social security these benefits are just promises to pay and we all know promises can be broken. The argument is always the same. We will cut services not have a broad based pay freeze or cut and allow everyone to keep their jobs and do what's best for the community. I know this idea is collectivist but the other option is a volunteer police and fire department which I fully support. This country needs to stop sending our jobs outside the country and we need to produce here at home. These big time CEOs promote synergies and economies of scale at whose expense? My answer in the common man and they pay themselves lavish bonuses and live in gated communities so they never see the common man's struggle. Really these rich people don't care about anyone but themselves.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010


I thought this video series was interesting on how the press creates false realities, or at least they try to. Google Operation Mockingbird which started I think in the early 1960's. This video series covers a lot more but you should get my point. Very few people watch this sort of lecture they are too consumed with their jobs, family, and pop culture. The USA's intelligence community has always tried these techniques in other countries and on their own home soil. Very interesting to hear this from a Soviet Union defector. The media keeps preaching recovery except we never got out of the first downturn. The manipulation of the financial markets gives the illusion that the economy has gotten better but not for the average person on main street. Once you study history you see that all financial downturns and depressions are caused by the banksters.